Two Potential Paths to 270 in the 2024 Election

With Americans poised at the polls, all eyes turn to the electoral college and the path to 270. Both candidates have several paths to get there.

Across the five northern swing exits, former President Donald Trump’s best odds are Hyattstown, Urbana and Frederick, which means the four-lane portion of the interstate freeway could be key to the Republican.

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris could get to 270 through the so-called “blue jersey wall” — specifically, the twelve-lane southern part of highway with 8 exits spanning Bethesda, North Bethesda and Rockville. 

Here are the candidates' most likely paths to 270 on Election Day.

Trump Catches a Break
- Trump catches all the lights on 355 from Bethesda to Gaithersburg, and shoots across the Sam Eig at Shady Grove, maintaining 55mph or better, with no major tie-ups through Germantown.
- Harris optimistically jumps on at Old Georgetown Road thirty seconds before a 5-car pileup at the spur.

Trump 270 ✔
Harris

This is Trump’s most likely path to I-70 in Frederick. 

Harris: The Blue Jersey Wall Holds
- Harris and her husband hop into Tim Waltz’s Prius and merge into the HOV3 lane in Bethesda, blow past bumper-to-bumper traffic from Montrose to Falls, and it’s clear sailing to Sugarloaf.
- Trump, stuck in the traffic, dumps off at West Montgomery and gets mired in downtown Rockville traffic trying to buzz over to the Shady Grove intersection. Then traffic crawls until Urbana.

Harris: 270 ✔
Trump

For Harris, the clearest path to I-70 in Frederick is through the blue jersey wall communities with two or more people in a hybrid vehicle. Pollsters caution that a stop at the Clarksburg outlets could tip the scales back to Trump.